In recent weeks, the global precious metals market has been showing some interesting shifts. Although gold, silver, and platinum prices are all flirting with resistance levels, the underlying demand trends are telling a different story—especially for gold and silver.
Investment demand for physical gold appears to be losing momentum. Major bullion producers like the US Mint and Perth Mint are reporting declining sales. For example, the US Mint’s gold coin sales fell from 63.5 thousand ounces in January to just 7.5 thousand ounces by May. Similarly, Perth Mint’s sales dropped 45% year-on-year, reflecting reduced enthusiasm from physical investors.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) had a strong start in early 2025, pushing total global holdings to a multi-year high of 3,616 tonnes by June. However, inflows have cooled significantly, particularly in Asia. Despite gold prices staying below $3,500/oz since April, central banks like China’s are still buying, and with the dollar expected to weaken further, some market participants are hopeful for another leg up—should gold finally break through $3,500.
On the silver front, the jewelry market is facing pressure. Although companies like Pandora are forecasting global growth, they are experiencing uneven performance across regions. The US saw strong sales growth, but revenue dropped in China, France, and Italy. Furthermore, the new 36% US tariff on Thai goods, set to begin in August, could disrupt silver jewelry exports significantly. Thailand, being the second-largest fabricator after India, saw exports surge by 26% earlier this year. But with Indian demand slowing due to price sensitivity, global demand for silver jewelry is expected to decline overall in 2025.
Silver prices have managed small gains, hovering around $38.95/oz. However, higher prices are beginning to choke demand in key markets, with India’s imports of raw silver down 50% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, platinum presents a contrasting picture. Supply constraints earlier in the year have started to ease, especially in South Africa, which has begun to normalize production. Lease rates for platinum—a sign of tight supply—have surged due to logistical challenges and stock imbalances between regions. However, with South African output improving and ETFs selling off some of their holdings, the market is finding better balance.
Overall, while prices may look strong on the surface, the demand side is telling a cautious tale. Investors and traders will need to closely monitor regional policies, especially tariffs, and keep an eye on price-sensitive markets like India to gauge the future direction of precious metals.
